Interlude- “The Compleat Herbalist-5” Herbie and his Friends Visit Everglades National Park

Blunt Business Cannabis Education Herbie National Parks Strategy

OK, let’s wrap this up”, says Monk.

“Shoot”.  “Shoot”.  “Woof”.

“The first area the consultant reviewed was industry growth rate.  Growth is good, as in “a rising tide lifts all boats”.  Each of our sectors are growing rapidly, which is good for potential profitability.  The one ‘caution’ our consultant mentioned was to look at ‘true’ growth, not what he called ‘apparent growth’.  Meaning, are more people smoking more weed?  That is true growth.  What he called ‘apparent growth’ is when people assume there is growth just people are opening dispensaries at a rapid clip.  If the true growth isn’t there, the dispensaries will eventually go under.

The next area is the percent fixed costs.  Remember, high fixed costs are bad for profitability because people become desperate for volume and they do dumb things like start price wars. .  In our market, growers have medium fixed costs- essentially because land is cheap where we are, and the equipment is not that expensive.  Labs appear to have the highest fixed costs because of the cleanliness requirements.  And dispensaries the lowest.  Remember, that is for our geographic market.  Go somewhere where land is expensive and the story changes for growers, etc.

Next up is the level of product differentiation.  If all weed is the same, there is low differentiation and it will be priced as a commodity.  Here, because of all the branding, both growers and dispensaries have differentiation, moreso among dispensaries.  Lab services are felt to be more of a commodity (seen one lab, seen ‘em all), which is not completely fair, but is the perception.  It is also changing as we see more custom concentrates on the market.  Astro, you lab guys might take a lesson from the dispensaries with all of their celebrity deals and learn how to differentiate your product in the mind of the consumer.

Finally, we consider favorability of government policies.  And here, we don’t just mean whether they say nice things at press conferences.  We mean are the policies good for profitability.  So in our state, the government is making it very easy for people to get dispensary licenses and to enter the business.  They even provide funding.  Seems friendly and supportive but this is not good for potential profitability.  So in our market, grower licenses are limited, which is good, lab licenses are limited, which is good, and dispensary licenses are virtually unlimited, which is bad for potential profitability.

Summarizing:

 

Growers

Labs (processors)

Dispensaries

Industry Growth Rate

High.  (Good).

High.  (Good).

High.  (Good). 

Percent Fixed Costs

Medium, so, inconclusive.

High.  (Bad). 

Low.  (Good).

Level of Product Differentiation.

Medium, so, inconclusive. 

Uncertain

High.  (Good).

Favorability of Government Policies

Good

Good

Poor (but they mean well).

 

“So that about wraps it up for advice from our consultant”, says Monk.

“Why don’t we celebrate, then talk about where we go from here?”, says Astro.

“Good Idea”, says Herbie.

“Let’s do it” says Monk.

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